Grotesque-Duel
0xbced9efd4922f71074dacf2f57cad5a6aaeb84e9
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
73
Open notional
$132.73
Total PnL
$-180.78
Realised
$1.08
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 73- NO
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
22 shares @ 46.2¢·now 58.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.60
$2.60
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
42 shares @ 4.8¢·now 27.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$11.60
$9.60
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
13 shares @ 38.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$8.09
$3.09
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
18 shares @ 16.4¢·now 41.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$7.49
$4.49
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
43 shares @ 23.1¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.92
$-3.08
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
14 shares @ 36.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$6.74
$1.74
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$6.05
$1.05
- NO
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
22 shares @ 23.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$5.22
$0.22
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
18 shares @ 5.7¢·now 28.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$5.10
$4.10
- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?
17 shares @ 29.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.74
$-0.26
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on July 23?$0.89Jul 23, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on July 23?$0.06Jul 23, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on July 23?$0.03Jul 23, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on July 23?$0.07Jul 23, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill July 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?$1.05Jul 23, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 23?$1.04Jul 23, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$2.05Jul 23, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$3.10Jul 23, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?$4.12Jul 23, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill July 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?$3.12Jul 22, 02:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?$2.08Jul 22, 02:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$2.06Jul 22, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$2.06Jul 22, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trey Gowdy be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$1.04Jul 22, 01:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah disarm by December 31?$2.00Jul 20, 02:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$65.71Jul 19, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?$1.00Jul 19, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.05Jul 19, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.10Jul 19, 01:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $4.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 10:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.