Inexperienced-Monger
0xbf4d498c9540e347a67915cd2b0c7b998a8fbda3
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$19.41
Total PnL
$-75.87
Realised
$-16.83
Win rate
0%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
13 shares @ 77.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$7.02
$-2.72
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
5 shares @ 91.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.44
$0.46
- NO
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
5 shares @ 98.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.07
$0.09
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
26 shares @ 19.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.20
$-3.80
- YES
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
4 shares @ 1.2¢·now 11.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.48
$0.43
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?
37 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.18
$-3.43
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?
4 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.02
$-0.33
- YES
Will CR win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
252 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.54
- YES
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
210 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
115 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.57
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$4.98Jun 27, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYTaylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?$4.98Jun 27, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?$4.87Jun 27, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?$4.87Jun 27, 00:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?$5.12May 25, 15:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?$5.37May 25, 15:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? $9.46May 25, 11:55 UTC
- REDEEMForeign intervention in Gaza by April 30?$5.05May 11, 20:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump visit China by May 8?$10.06May 11, 20:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?$10.13May 11, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah disarm by April 30?$0.42Apr 25, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah disarm by April 30?$0.43Apr 25, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYForeign intervention in Gaza by April 30?$2.27Apr 21, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 15?$4.84Apr 21, 17:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs?$6.41Apr 21, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? $4.47Apr 20, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 8?$4.96Apr 20, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 8?$4.96Apr 20, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYForeign intervention in Gaza by April 30?$4.96Apr 20, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?$4.99Apr 20, 19:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $4.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 6, 18:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 27, 00:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.