Stale-Cactus
0xc0311eb82700be2fdc08d875ea4de2bc1e402c43
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
43
Open notional
$346.83
Total PnL
$23.26
Realised
$1.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- NO
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
108 shares @ 66.6¢·now 66.5¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$71.54
$-0.16
- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
40 shares @ 70.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$35.00
$7.00
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
20 shares @ 76.0¢·now 97.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$19.53
$4.33
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
19 shares @ 68.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$17.80
$4.86
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
20 shares @ 75.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.60
$0.60
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
20 shares @ 59.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.30
$3.50
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
15 shares @ 73.4¢·now 94.6¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$14.19
$3.18
- NO
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
10 shares @ 59.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.95
$3.05
- NO
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
10 shares @ 75.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.65
$1.15
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
10 shares @ 67.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.25
$0.55
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Syria by September 15, 2026?$6.00Aug 19, 23:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?$4.71Aug 19, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?$4.97Aug 19, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?$1.05Aug 19, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?$4.09Aug 19, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 20?$5.54Aug 19, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?$5.00Aug 19, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?$5.10Aug 19, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?$5.00Aug 19, 08:00 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$5.00Aug 18, 18:18 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group$0.00Aug 18, 14:33 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$5.00Aug 16, 06:48 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$5.00Aug 16, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)$6.58Aug 16, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli election results in a hung parliament?$5.07Aug 15, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$5.06Aug 15, 16:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Piers Morgan attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$5.00Aug 14, 23:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$5.00Aug 14, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$5.00Aug 13, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?$5.00Aug 13, 19:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $3.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 05:29 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 23:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.