Tremendous-Cabinet
0xc3836de3ec3a1be41d3cffe893fa1d2f6af132a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$19.64
Total PnL
$-43.90
Realised
$-16.59
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?
8 shares @ 96.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$7.88
$0.20
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?
8 shares @ 78.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.76
$-0.48
- NO
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4 shares @ 95.7¢·now 94.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.77
$-0.05
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
3 shares @ 40.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$1.84
$0.64
- YES
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
7 shares @ 16.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.39
$-0.73
- YES
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?
16 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-8.48
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?
11 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-6.93
- YES
Will Solana dip to $60 in June?
10 shares @ 64.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-6.48
- YES
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?
4 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.04
- YES
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?
2 shares @ 64.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?$12.00Jun 24, 03:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?$21.00Jun 23, 07:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran close its airspace by June 30?$1.75Jun 22, 00:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$5.00Jun 21, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?$1.52Jun 21, 01:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?$2.00Jun 20, 22:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Morocco win on 2026-06-19?$2.00Jun 20, 01:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19?$2.00Jun 19, 22:45 UTC
- TRADESELLGames Total: O/U 2.5$0.88Jun 19, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYGames Total: O/U 2.5$1.43Jun 19, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$0.58Jun 19, 19:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.32Jun 19, 14:34 UTC
- TRADESELLValorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs$0.78Jun 19, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.35Jun 19, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLValorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs$0.82Jun 19, 13:07 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.92Jun 19, 12:19 UTC
- TRADESELLITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun$0.66Jun 19, 08:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$1.44Jun 19, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morocco win on 2026-06-19?$1.13Jun 19, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19?$1.48Jun 19, 05:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $0.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 17:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 03:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.