Likable-Termite
0xc4bc406606dbb19bde3afe04bf2da8589fe67f56
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$88.16
Total PnL
$-47.06
Realised
$-18.94
Win rate
0%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
10 shares @ 96.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$10.39
$0.40
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
10 shares @ 97.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$10.24
$0.24
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
10 shares @ 94.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$9.47
$0.47
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
9 shares @ 98.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$9.13
$0.13
- NO
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
7 shares @ 97.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$7.16
$0.16
- NO
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
7 shares @ 97.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.10
$0.10
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
7 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$7.05
$0.05
- NO
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
6 shares @ 94.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$6.33
$0.33
- YES
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
6 shares @ 96.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.22
$0.22
- NO
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?
6 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$5.62
$0.62
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 8, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 31, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 30, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.