Fatherly-Rationale
0xc8ec6d4cef5c5fe8409ef69303c37f05b678e8f1
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
42
Open notional
$3.5K
Total PnL
$-598.1K
Realised
$-5.6K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- NO
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
50599 shares @ 10.7¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.5K
$-1.9K
- YES
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1202654 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.5K
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
1010973 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-8.1K
- LAKERS
Lakers vs. Thunder
242763 shares @ 13.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-32.8K
- 76ERS
Knicks vs. 76ers
207612 shares @ 47.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-98.4K
- GHANA
Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance
153737 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-29.2K
- RAPTORS
Raptors vs. Cavaliers
144470 shares @ 27.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-40.0K
- TIMBERWOLVES
Spurs vs. Timberwolves
143290 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-50.2K
- YES
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?
126730 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-29.1K
- MAGIC
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic
115757 shares @ 64.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-74.8K
Recent activity
- YIELD$10.43Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$8.94Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Argentina?$0.00Jul 19, 22:30 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Any Other Score?$0.00Jul 19, 22:30 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Any Other Score?$0.00Jul 19, 22:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$200.1KJul 19, 22:12 UTC
- TRADESELLSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$317.2KJul 19, 22:06 UTC
- YIELD$10.54Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$734.38Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$10.46Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?$2.4KJul 17, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$182.2KJul 17, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$11.6KJul 17, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$1.0KJul 17, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Argentina?$1.3KJul 17, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Argentina?$1.6KJul 17, 16:38 UTC
- YIELD$10.36Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$6.36Jul 16, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$10.37Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$11.00Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$221.7K
Trades
2
Buy share
7%
Window
May 16, 19:40 UTC → Jul 6, 20:55 UTC
- SELLWill Spain win on 2026-07-06?$43.6K@90¢Jul 6, 20:55 UTC
- BUYWill United States vs. Australia end in a draw?$6.0K@23¢Jun 19, 18:56 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$43.6K
1 trades
Buy share
7%
Sample
limited
5 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?
$153.1K · 69% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $46.3K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 16:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.