0xcabb8b7a1a111bf4d4e373e51eb07798c02ebbc4
0xcabb8b7a1a111bf4d4e373e51eb07798c02ebbc4
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
41
Open notional
$303.20
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-0.68
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
122 shares @ 41.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$121.95
$71.95
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
147 shares @ 67.9¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$112.64
$12.64
- NO
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
17 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$16.95
$6.95
- YES
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
160 shares @ 23.8¢·now 9.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$14.37
$-23.70
- NO
Iran leadership change by June 30?
13 shares @ 75.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$13.33
$3.33
- YES
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
18 shares @ 57.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.81
$2.81
- NO
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
12 shares @ 83.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.14
$1.14
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16?
1435 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-46.52
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 16?
1176 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-46.54
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 16?
822 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-46.60
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?$92.31May 1, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 15?$39.22Apr 26, 02:02 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$20.17Apr 25, 00:50 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$38.50Apr 25, 00:30 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$72.60Apr 22, 16:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$98.29Apr 22, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?$50.00Apr 22, 13:57 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$3.80Apr 22, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$50.00Apr 22, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$50.00Apr 22, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$50.00Apr 22, 13:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?$50.00Apr 22, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$10.00Apr 22, 12:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hezbollah disarm by December 31?$11.63Apr 22, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$50.00Apr 22, 09:32 UTC
- REDEEMDucks vs. Oilers$82.33Apr 21, 15:26 UTC
- REDEEMSenators vs. Hurricanes$85.12Apr 21, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYDucks vs. Oilers$50.00Apr 20, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$50.00Apr 20, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?$50.00Apr 20, 01:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $40.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 17, 13:53 UTC
- Last active
- May 1, 07:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.