Wan-Grocery
0xcacb00437210dc297512b68298176727497f5490
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
56
Open notional
$27.92
Total PnL
$-91.31
Realised
$6.05
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 56- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
7 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$7.35
$2.35
- YES
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31?
5 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.38
$0.38
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
5 shares @ 82.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.51
$0.51
- NO
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
2 shares @ 48.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.80
$0.80
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
12 shares @ 8.3¢·now 14.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.72
$0.72
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.43
$0.43
- NO
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
1 shares @ 69.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.39
$0.39
- NO
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
1 shares @ 67.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$1.27
$0.27
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
1 shares @ 87.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.11
$0.11
- YES
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2 shares @ 47.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.86
$-0.14
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$1.05May 23, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31?$5.01May 23, 05:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$5.06May 23, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.00May 23, 05:22 UTC
- REDEEMTim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31?$1.06May 23, 05:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.41May 23, 05:20 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: Khamenei$2.50May 23, 05:20 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$2.63May 23, 05:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$2.70May 23, 05:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$5.26May 23, 05:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$5.92May 23, 05:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?$24.63May 23, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$1.00Feb 28, 13:03 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?$1.69Jan 31, 02:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?$4.49Jan 31, 02:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?$5.26Jan 31, 02:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?$17.89Jan 31, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$4.00Jan 15, 06:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?$0.20Jan 15, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?$1.00Jan 14, 05:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $1.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 10, 06:48 UTC
- Last active
- May 23, 05:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.