Physical-Preoccupation
0xcb69f9d3d30a8f102267f880aed55d14e59c361e
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-123.69
Realised
$121.13
Win rate
42%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- YES
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
426 shares @ 39.8¢·now 38.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$161.83
$-7.76
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
573 shares @ 10.5¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$128.86
$68.86
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
347 shares @ 23.4¢·now 25.8¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$89.36
$8.00
- NO
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
155 shares @ 33.5¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 5, 2026$87.58
$35.67
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
274 shares @ 27.7¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$78.18
$2.18
- YES
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 Week of July 20 2026?
207 shares @ 24.1¢·now 34.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$70.48
$20.48
- YES
Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
381 shares @ 12.6¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$66.72
$18.74
- YES
Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
130 shares @ 10.7¢·now 50.4¢·exp Nov 5, 2026$65.62
$51.65
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
251 shares @ 19.9¢·now 19.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$49.87
$-0.13
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
335 shares @ 12.3¢·now 14.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$48.09
$7.03
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 Week of July 20 2026?$51.52Jul 21, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$20.00Jul 21, 18:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$73.34Jul 21, 18:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$55.98Jul 20, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$51.20Jul 20, 18:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 Week of July 20 2026?$9.74Jul 20, 18:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $60 Week of July 20 2026?$33.97Jul 20, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?$63.37Jul 20, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$72.16Jul 20, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold have the best performance in 2026?$36.96Jul 20, 16:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $60 Week of July 20 2026?$35.38Jul 20, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYSam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?$25.23Jul 20, 14:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?$25.07Jul 20, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?$59.16Jul 20, 14:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $59 Week of July 20 2026?$59.34Jul 20, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $59 Week of July 20 2026?$44.09Jul 20, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$20.69Jul 20, 12:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $40.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 16:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.