0xcdb28306fbf507796bb6acc38c11a5c1949e590a
0xcdb28306fbf507796bb6acc38c11a5c1949e590a
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
65
Open notional
$694.03
Total PnL
$24.87
Realised
$1.51
Win rate
29%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- NO
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
75 shares @ 10.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$74.55
$67.09
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
62 shares @ 76.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$58.55
$11.49
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?
56 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$56.17
$34.26
- NO
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
42 shares @ 24.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$41.60
$31.62
- YES
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?
37 shares @ 24.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$37.17
$27.99
- NO
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?
37 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$36.96
$7.02
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
37 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$36.78
$10.30
- YES
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
33 shares @ 34.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$33.33
$22.00
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
31 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$31.25
$14.38
- NO
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
30 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$30.31
$12.73
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$7.50Apr 28, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$7.54Apr 27, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$5.16Apr 27, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?$2.05Apr 27, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$2.74Apr 27, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?$2.14Apr 27, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?$2.14Apr 27, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?$2.14Apr 27, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?$14.88Apr 27, 10:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?$9.18Apr 27, 10:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill voter turnout be 68–71% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?$0.00Apr 27, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?$0.00Apr 27, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?$0.00Apr 27, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?$0.00Apr 27, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?$0.00Apr 27, 10:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?$0.00Apr 27, 10:30 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by May 15?$0.00Apr 27, 10:30 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$0.00Apr 27, 10:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?$0.00Apr 27, 10:30 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by May 31?$0.00Apr 27, 10:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $8.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 7, 23:08 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 28, 06:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.