Arid-Argument
0xd0c5809d6538cad327e9b04a527e5d8fd9b01469
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$141.67
Total PnL
$-439.87
Realised
$-3.08
Win rate
33%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 89.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$46.75
$2.25
- YES
Will the Boston Bruins make the NHL Playoffs?
15 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$15.00
$2.70
- NO
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?
15 shares @ 79.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$15.00
$3.05
- NO
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
10 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$10.00
$1.80
- YES
Will the Montreal Canadiens make the NHL Playoffs?
8 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$8.00
$1.44
- YES
Will the Detroit Pistons finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference?
5 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$5.00
$0.90
- NO
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league?
5 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$5.00
$1.00
- NO
Will Leverkusen finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?
5 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$5.00
$1.00
- NO
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?
5 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.00
$1.00
- NO
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?
5 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$5.00
$1.05
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitBoy convicted?$3.00Apr 4, 23:43 UTC
- REDEEMNATO Article 5 by March 31?$3.00Apr 4, 23:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hezbollah disarm by March 31?$3.00Apr 4, 23:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill USD.AI launch a token by March 31?$10.00Apr 4, 23:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?$5.00Mar 31, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$5.00Mar 31, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mallorca finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings?$5.00Mar 31, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$5.00Mar 31, 07:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?$5.00Mar 31, 07:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Montreal Canadiens make the NHL Playoffs?$1.86Mar 31, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Colorado Avalanche win the Central Division?$1.99Mar 31, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Nashville Predators make the NHL Playoffs?$1.46Mar 31, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO Article 5 by March 31?$1.99Mar 31, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luka Doncic lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?$0.07Mar 31, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?$1.12Mar 31, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?$0.35Mar 31, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Philadelphia Flyers make the NHL Playoffs?$1.22Mar 31, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitBoy convicted?$0.37Mar 31, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hezbollah disarm by March 31?$2.00Mar 31, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Boston Bruins make the NHL Playoffs?$4.10Mar 30, 18:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $3.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 5, 20:52 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 4, 23:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.