Merry-Bonding-Piccolo
0xd10a59fcc18955eeaebd06d1234cc3bd1e3fb9cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$753.11
Total PnL
$-43.34
Realised
$2.04
Win rate
100%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
15 shares @ 29.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.95
$6.60
- YES
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?
12 shares @ 92.0¢·now 88.9¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$10.65
$-0.37
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 70.3¢·now 64.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$9.60
$-0.95
- NO
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?
15 shares @ 73.7¢·now 64.0¢·exp Sep 8, 2026$9.60
$-1.45
- NO
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?
10 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.35
$-0.05
- NO
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?
10 shares @ 93.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.08
$0.09
- NO
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?
10 shares @ 89.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.90
$0.00
- NO
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
10 shares @ 88.3¢·now 87.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.77
$-0.06
- NO
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?
10 shares @ 90.2¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$8.74
$-0.28
- NO
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 75.7¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.63
$-2.72
Recent activity
- TRADESELLFDA approves Retatrutide this year?$4.60Jul 1, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?$1.95Jul 1, 12:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?$2.75Jul 1, 12:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Syria recognize Israel by December 31?$4.30Jul 1, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$4.30Jul 1, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.80Jul 1, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.00Jul 1, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Phoebe Bridgers attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$1.25Jul 1, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dr. Daniel Santos win the Governor of Pará election?$2.15Jul 1, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$1.85Jul 1, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$4.41Jul 1, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$4.42Jul 1, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $32.5B by December 31?$4.20Jul 1, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%?$2.36Jul 1, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?$2.70Jul 1, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$0.50Jul 1, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$0.55Jul 1, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$0.25Jul 1, 11:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?$1.90Jul 1, 11:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July 2026?$4.70Jul 1, 11:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 08:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 12:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.