Merry-Bonding-Piccolo
0xd10a59fcc18955eeaebd06d1234cc3bd1e3fb9cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$515.50
Total PnL
$-50.36
Realised
$6.10
Win rate
75%
89 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0038 by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 61.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.45
$0.35
- NO
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
9 shares @ 64.9¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$6.07
$-0.04
- NO
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
10 shares @ 63.4¢·now 62.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$5.96
$-0.09
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?
7 shares @ 77.3¢·now 76.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.49
$-0.06
- NO
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?
5 shares @ 90.6¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.60
$0.07
- NO
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?
7 shares @ 75.3¢·now 69.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$4.55
$-0.41
- NO
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
9 shares @ 71.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.52
$-1.90
- YES
Over $1.5B crypto hack value in 2026?
5 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.50
$0.00
- NO
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.50
$0.05
- YES
Will António Costa visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.47
$-0.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Wei Ping-cheng win the next Changhua County Magistrate election?$3.72Aug 18, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?$3.95Aug 18, 17:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gears of War: E-Day win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?$4.32Aug 18, 17:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?$5.60Aug 18, 17:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026?$1.25Aug 18, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$4.30Aug 18, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dee Valladares win Big Brother season 28?$4.15Aug 18, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?$3.95Aug 18, 16:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?$3.40Aug 18, 16:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$3.00Aug 18, 16:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sébastien Lecornu announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?$4.30Aug 18, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?$2.16Aug 18, 16:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026?$1.00Aug 18, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$2.80Aug 18, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?$2.65Aug 18, 16:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lin Kuo-chang win the next Yilan County Magistrate election?$2.20Aug 18, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLTheo FDV above $300M one day after launch?$0.41Aug 18, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLTheo FDV above $300M one day after launch?$5.69Aug 18, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?$1.09Aug 18, 16:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Wu Shu-chin win the next Penghu County Magistrate election?$3.76Aug 18, 16:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
78/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 89 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
89 closed markets, 75% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 14:12 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 17:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 89 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.