Conventional-Fax
0xd34d0a9c55ac4cf289fa21e003634492465063e5
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-399.70
Realised
$-50.89
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
US government shutdown Saturday?
16667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Netflix say "Subscriber" during earnings call?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12PM ET
370 shares @ 16.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-60.28
- NO
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during WEF Address on January 21?
183 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Friend of Mine" during WEF Address on January 21?
180 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 22?
130 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21?
120 shares @ 82.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-98.52
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 6AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- NO
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum?
96 shares @ 31.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 11, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.03Jun 10, 05:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$9.47Jun 10, 05:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$19.37Jun 10, 05:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$23.39Jun 10, 05:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 9, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 8, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 7, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.45Jun 6, 10:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.13Jun 6, 10:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$15.38Jun 6, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$25.71Jun 6, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.29Jun 6, 10:56 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 27, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump be impeached by end of 2026?$42.86Feb 26, 06:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 26, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be impeached by end of 2026?$50.00Feb 25, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELL100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?$42.68Feb 12, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$47.23Feb 12, 01:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $35.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 26, 13:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 11, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.