Sweltering-Passion-Fragrance
0xd38f5f17d57b4ded218dfcbca4bd8deee78abf78
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
89
Open notional
$274.11
Total PnL
$-11.00
Realised
$1.20
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 89- NO
Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?
10 shares @ 74.9¢·now 69.3¢·exp Jan 15, 2027$6.93
$-0.56
- NO
Japan recession in 2026?
5 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$4.53
$0.07
- NO
Decibel FDV above $300M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 89.9¢·now 90.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$4.51
$0.01
- NO
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch
5 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$4.50
$0.00
- NO
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.47
$0.07
- NO
Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
5 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.45
$0.05
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?
5 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.45
$0.05
- NO
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
5 shares @ 86.6¢·now 88.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.42
$0.09
- NO
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
5 shares @ 88.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.40
$0.00
- NO
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 91.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.40
$-0.15
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill John Brennan be arrested before 2027?$3.20Jul 24, 02:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Krasnoiarske by September 30?$0.00Jul 24, 02:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 24, 02:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30?$0.00Jul 24, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUSMCA extended in 2026?$3.85Jul 24, 01:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?$4.45Jul 24, 00:49 UTC
- TRADESELLLa Velada del Año 6: Alondrissa vs Angie Velasco$3.15Jul 24, 00:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?$3.60Jul 23, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pacifica launch a token by December 31 2026?$4.35Jul 23, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYInk FDV above $250M one day after launch?$2.95Jul 23, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?$1.80Jul 23, 20:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $43.5B by July 31?$4.70Jul 23, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?$3.65Jul 23, 20:05 UTC
- TRADESELLFloyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2$1.47Jul 23, 19:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?$2.45Jul 23, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?$2.40Jul 23, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?$4.00Jul 23, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYHurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch?$0.84Jul 23, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYHurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch?$3.16Jul 23, 16:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?$4.45Jul 23, 14:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $3.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 13:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 02:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.