Unwitting-Ectoderm
0xd4a838505835d45156d8334292fe7522c1d59707
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$3.7K
Total PnL
$148.00
Realised
$27.95
Win rate
100%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
1622 shares @ 91.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$-12.23
- NO
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?
995 shares @ 90.5¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$914.95
$14.95
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
562 shares @ 89.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$560.96
$60.96
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
340 shares @ 89.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$307.87
$3.28
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 83.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$100.40
$16.25
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
117 shares @ 81.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$99.80
$5.25
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
127 shares @ 67.1¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$84.40
$-0.78
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
50 shares @ 50.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$43.25
$18.25
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
45 shares @ 69.3¢·now 93.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$41.57
$10.58
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
35 shares @ 92.8¢·now 97.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$34.51
$1.66
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$66.60Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$7.37Jul 29, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$42.63Jul 29, 14:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$52.68Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$50.71Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$14.74Jul 27, 06:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$8.80Jul 27, 06:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$5.40Jul 27, 06:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$15.34Jul 27, 05:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$35.00Jul 26, 09:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$50.00Jul 24, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$45.64Jul 24, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$22.04Jul 24, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$28.01Jul 24, 18:40 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $23.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 19:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.