Complex-Formation
0xda9126becc96be3598ddd05c4fc06f4093759ffd
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
123
Open notional
$5.3K
Total PnL
$-738.20
Realised
$1.3K
Win rate
63%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 123- YES
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
2728 shares @ 59.8¢·now 59.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$1.6K
$-8.96
- NO
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
2806 shares @ 36.3¢·now 37.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$1.1K
$32.93
- NO
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
1229 shares @ 74.5¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$989.70
$73.90
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
404 shares @ 67.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$310.90
$40.45
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
1461 shares @ 22.2¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$270.32
$-54.33
- YES
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
397 shares @ 54.2¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$212.32
$-2.75
- NO
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
413 shares @ 40.8¢·now 47.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$196.21
$27.50
- NO
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
241 shares @ 55.6¢·now 65.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$157.65
$23.40
- NO
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
199 shares @ 61.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$154.07
$32.80
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
417 shares @ 34.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$131.37
$-10.48
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$8.95Jul 30, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$26.54Jul 30, 02:41 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$15.94Jul 30, 00:45 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.89Jul 30, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$12.32Jul 30, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $720 Week of July 27 2026?$1.56Jul 29, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$241.25Jul 29, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?$348.00Jul 29, 22:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.9KJul 29, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$21.95Jul 29, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?$39.82Jul 29, 20:03 UTC
- REDEEMFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$2.0KJul 29, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$8.60Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.24Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$196.43Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$4.30Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$346.96Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$277.05Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.51Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$146.20Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $80.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 15:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 04:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.