Capital-Union
0xdc4a4859f266cfffb74b4512d0df243343bcdddc
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$103.56
Total PnL
$-2.25
Realised
$0.18
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
20 shares @ 90.5¢·now 86.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.20
$-0.90
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
13 shares @ 83.7¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.90
$0.90
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
11 shares @ 79.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.97
$0.97
- NO
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
6 shares @ 89.2¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.48
$-0.02
- NO
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 96.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$5.17
$0.17
- NO
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$5.02
$0.02
- NO
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
5 shares @ 93.5¢·now 93.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$4.99
$-0.01
- NO
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
7 shares @ 71.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$4.96
$-0.04
- YES
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$4.94
$0.25
- NO
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6 shares @ 90.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$4.81
$-0.19
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?$3.09Jun 10, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?$3.89Jun 8, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?$4.07Jun 8, 07:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$2.57Jun 8, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLFlorentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?$8.48Jun 8, 07:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5?$2.25Jun 8, 07:33 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$0.01Jun 4, 07:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?$3.11Jun 2, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5?$2.01Jun 2, 09:23 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$0.01Jun 1, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$3.02Jun 1, 12:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meta acquire TikTok?$2.01Jun 1, 11:38 UTC
- TRADESELLXi Jinping out by June 30?$3.14Jun 1, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.04Jun 1, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.04Jun 1, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.01Jun 1, 11:36 UTC
- REDEEMTrump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?$3.03Jun 1, 11:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$3.08Jun 1, 11:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.09Jun 1, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.00May 31, 22:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $3.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 21, 14:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 10, 08:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.