Those-Impression
0xdcdef208c7bbbbd3423ca01d4df654ddc9437960
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$233.09
Total PnL
$143.75
Realised
$22.38
Win rate
40%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
151 shares @ 27.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$150.82
$110.07
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
33 shares @ 29.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$33.15
$23.35
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
25 shares @ 21.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$25.45
$19.91
- NO
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?
6 shares @ 96.0¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.37
$0.15
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 92.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.10
$0.37
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 85.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.04
$0.12
- YES
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
1 shares @ 70.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.46
$0.43
- NO
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?
1 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$1.34
$0.56
- NO
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
1 shares @ 90.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.21
$0.12
- NO
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
1 shares @ 80.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.17
$0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$1.10Jul 10, 23:35 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?$0.01Jul 10, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?$1.17Jul 10, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?$1.10Jul 7, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?$1.10Jul 7, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?$1.10Jul 7, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?$2.96Jul 7, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.04Jul 7, 01:46 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.41Jul 6, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.15Jul 6, 18:53 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.08Jul 6, 18:36 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.09Jul 6, 18:36 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.10Jul 6, 18:35 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.12Jul 6, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.14Jul 6, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.15Jul 6, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.08Jul 6, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.18Jul 6, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.09Jul 6, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.22Jul 6, 18:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 19:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 23:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.