Ragged-Placode
0xdfee1d79b4384ca40109c87c8b5027df33a364bb
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$12.3K
Total PnL
$-4.3K
Realised
$-2.8K
Win rate
12%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
6209 shares @ 83.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.9K
$716.77
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
6041 shares @ 85.4¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.6K
$431.23
- NO
Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
275 shares @ 74.1¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$229.63
$25.88
- NO
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
155 shares @ 75.7¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$144.91
$27.59
- NO
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?
150 shares @ 77.8¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$142.05
$25.06
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026?
139 shares @ 71.1¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$126.63
$27.67
- NO
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
127 shares @ 79.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$117.09
$17.09
- NO
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
51 shares @ 79.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$45.32
$5.32
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
6459 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-64.59
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
3320 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-150.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.50Aug 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.50Aug 17, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President before 2027?$307.19Aug 16, 04:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.50Aug 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.50Aug 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.50Aug 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.50Aug 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.50Aug 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.50Aug 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.50Aug 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.50Aug 9, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.50Aug 8, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.50Aug 7, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.50Aug 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.50Aug 5, 02:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.49Aug 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.49Aug 3, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.49Aug 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.49Aug 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.49Jul 31, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
12% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $122.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 11:10 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.