0xe0ec3652ed54102b2c3bee91f4db5c134e5593c1
0xe0ec3652ed54102b2c3bee91f4db5c134e5593c1
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$54.89
Total PnL
$-548.68
Realised
$-2.41
Win rate
30%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
24 shares @ 41.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$24.09
$14.09
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
20 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$19.60
$9.60
- NO
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
11 shares @ 87.9¢·now 98.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.21
$1.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 9?
4750 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-4.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on April 9?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 11?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on April 9?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on April 9?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 9?
491 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.98
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on April 15?
210 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.63
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$5.00Jul 9, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$5.00Jul 9, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by June 30?$5.00Jul 9, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$5.00Jul 9, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?$5.00Jul 9, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$5.00Jul 9, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$5.00Jul 9, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMKash Patel out by June 30?$5.00Jul 9, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$5.00Jul 9, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$5.00Jul 9, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$5.00Jul 9, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$5.00Jul 9, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$5.00Jul 9, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?$5.00Jul 9, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$5.00Jul 9, 02:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?$10.00Jul 9, 02:57 UTC
- REDEEMEx-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?$11.91Jul 9, 02:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$17.00Jul 9, 02:57 UTC
- REDEEM Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$26.73Jul 9, 02:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?$5.00Jun 29, 16:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $7.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 7, 10:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 02:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.