0xe1ec7a665023c569a4e6b52337756bd7864cf7db
0xe1ec7a665023c569a4e6b52337756bd7864cf7db
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
175
Open notional
$35.76
Total PnL
$-768.33
Realised
$-27.70
Win rate
16%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 175- NO
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
6 shares @ 62.3¢·now 99.4¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$6.12
$2.28
- NO
Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
6 shares @ 72.7¢·now 98.8¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$5.44
$1.44
- YES
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
6 shares @ 46.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.26
$2.59
- NO
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
3 shares @ 58.0¢·now 98.7¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.36
$1.38
- NO
Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
4 shares @ 45.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$3.07
$1.05
- YES
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
7 shares @ 54.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$2.47
$-1.51
- YES
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
4 shares @ 62.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$2.15
$-0.09
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the TN-08 House seat?
23 shares @ 12.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.84
$-0.92
- YES
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
2 shares @ 76.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.71
$0.36
- NO
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$1.28
$0.16
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?$2.58Jul 10, 10:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?$1.65Jun 24, 05:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?$2.98Jun 13, 12:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May?$6.54Jun 4, 06:34 UTC
- REDEEMIran closes its airspace by May 31?$4.61Jun 1, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?$0.12May 30, 04:37 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?$4.73May 30, 04:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?$0.39May 13, 12:04 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$0.17May 12, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?$6.08May 8, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$1.13May 8, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.16May 8, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?$1.25May 8, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?$1.20May 7, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?$1.37May 7, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?$1.34May 7, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?$1.34May 7, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.00May 7, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?$1.33May 7, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$1.15May 7, 16:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
16% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $1.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 5, 11:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 10:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.