Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?
Probability
26¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$140.90
Liquidity
$14.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 26¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1065h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $14.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1065.4h
- 14:38SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1065h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:38PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 26¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 26¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 27¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 28¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 27¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 26¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 26¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 28¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 28¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 27¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 26¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 26¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 28¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 27¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 35¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Carolina, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 South Carolina Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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