Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
Probability
82¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$163.67
Liquidity
$16.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+9.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 560h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $16.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 560.2h
- 15:48SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 560h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 82¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 82¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 82¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 82¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 82¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 82¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 82¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 82¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 83¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 83¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 83¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 83¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 82¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 82¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 81¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 83¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 85¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 85¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 86¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky. If no 2026 Kentucky Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).