True-Child-Bottling
0xe215f8fd83e3cff0c11262c14fdf9ba1862c1c22
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$101.00
Total PnL
$-191.74
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
36 shares @ 4.2¢·now 33.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2026$11.88
$10.37
- YES
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?
30 shares @ 5.0¢·now 31.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.30
$7.80
- YES
Will Strava’s market cap be at least $15B at market close on IPO day?
39 shares @ 3.8¢·now 15.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$6.16
$4.68
- NO
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?
41 shares @ 3.7¢·now 10.8¢·exp Jun 6, 2027$4.45
$2.93
- YES
Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?
45 shares @ 3.3¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.80
$2.32
- YES
Will Strava’s market cap be between $4B and $5B at market close on IPO day?
30 shares @ 5.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$2.85
$1.35
- NO
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?
39 shares @ 3.8¢·now 6.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.40
$0.92
- YES
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
30 shares @ 5.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$2.10
$0.60
- NO
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?
31 shares @ 4.9¢·now 5.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.64
$0.12
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
71 shares @ 2.1¢·now 2.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.60
$0.11
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 31 and 32 million views on day 4?$1.66Jul 29, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Borova by September 30?$1.44Jul 29, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by December 31?$1.54Jul 29, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 31 and 32 million views on day 4?$1.50Jul 29, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 280m?$1.59Jul 29, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by August 31, 2026?$1.50Jul 28, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shrek 5 be delayed?$1.68Jul 28, 18:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$10.00Jul 28, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Disruptive" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$1.57Jul 28, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYCap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?$1.57Jul 28, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?$1.61Jul 28, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?$1.48Jul 28, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill BN win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?$1.61Jul 28, 10:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 10–15%?$30.00Jul 28, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Trump" 5+ times during Michigan remarks?$1.67Jul 27, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026?$1.50Jul 27, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rand Paul be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?$1.59Jul 27, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ralph Norman win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?$1.49Jul 27, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?$1.55Jul 27, 00:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo win the next Lima mayoral elections?$1.49Jul 27, 00:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 08:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.