Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$5.07
Liquidity
$1.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $1.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.0h
- 15:57SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 2¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 2¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.1pp
to 2¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.9pp
to 2¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.9pp
to 2¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 2¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 2¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 2¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.9pp
to 2¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.9pp
to 2¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 2¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 2¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).