0xe27edec063feb75bdd69a6f7d1cb8fdc31e7a9d0
0xe27edec063feb75bdd69a6f7d1cb8fdc31e7a9d0
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
51
Open notional
$5.71
Total PnL
$-422.16
Realised
$-2.43
Win rate
44%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- NO
Iran leadership change by May 31?
4 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$4.25
$1.83
- YES
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
4 shares @ 41.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.07
$-0.50
- YES
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?
1 shares @ 53.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.39
$-0.38
- YES
Will Solana reach $100 February 23-March 1?
232 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-7.67
- YES
Will Solana dip to $70 February 23-March 1?
216 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-10.61
- NO
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?
117 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-19.89
- NO
More EU sanctions on Russia by March 31?
88 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-29.92
- NO
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?
86 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-16.34
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
71 shares @ 19.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-13.60
- NO
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
68 shares @ 21.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.47
Recent activity
- TRADESELLRomanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?$16.94Apr 28, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYRomanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?$14.51Apr 28, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?$6.44Apr 26, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?$8.12Apr 26, 23:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?$13.92Apr 26, 19:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?$5.39Apr 26, 14:33 UTC
- TRADESELLKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$2.32Apr 26, 14:05 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$5.06Apr 26, 06:43 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$9.60Apr 26, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?$5.49Apr 24, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?$9.15Apr 24, 19:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?$4.80Apr 24, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?$3.00Apr 24, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?$2.70Apr 24, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?$2.70Apr 24, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?$2.70Apr 24, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$0.94Apr 24, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$2.58Apr 24, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$9.18Apr 24, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$1.04Apr 24, 14:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $7.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 20, 20:32 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 28, 06:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.