Unpleasant-Alpenglow
0xe3d92fccab9a9124b98ece1386b5e1cc3e3a2f93
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-335.23
Realised
$-74.73
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?
7998 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-21.53
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
447 shares @ 29.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-130.00
- YES
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
286 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.14
- YES
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
286 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.14
- YES
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
182 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.09
- YES
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
182 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.09
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.0KJul 30, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$501.90Jul 29, 18:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$502.00Jul 29, 18:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.4KJul 29, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$908.21Jul 21, 15:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.38Jul 20, 07:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$635.47Jul 20, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.25Jul 19, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$523.80Jul 19, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$95.42Jul 14, 10:09 UTC
- TRADESELLEvangeline Lilly as the Wasp?$95.73Jul 14, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$10.06Jul 12, 13:58 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$10.00Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$92.35Jul 10, 12:05 UTC
- TRADESELLTom Holland as Spider-Man?$31.81Jul 10, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.7KJul 9, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$10.10Jul 9, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLMark Ruffalo as Hulk?$3.52Jul 9, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLHailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop?$7.40Jul 9, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump post "Russia" on Truth Social this week?$1.90Jun 29, 15:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $214.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 12:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 12:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.