Vague-Mortise
0xe4d92f879d3b55c26c1f672acedf8ab17a2c2a4e
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$2.1K
Total PnL
$-197.57
Realised
$34.75
Win rate
47%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- UNDER
Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5
815 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$815.00
$383.35
- SPACEX
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
538 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$538.00
$75.32
- NO
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?
445 shares @ 81.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$380.47
$20.02
- NO
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
277 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$277.00
$0.28
- YES
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
143 shares @ 34.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$47.19
$-1.43
- YES
Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 14.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.84
$1.76
- YES
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?
4 shares @ 53.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.02
$-0.10
- NO
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?
2 shares @ 84.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.62
$-0.06
- NO
AI bubble burst in 2026?
2 shares @ 64.0¢·now 78.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.58
$0.30
- NO
Arthur_0x mindshare all time high by March 31?
1 shares @ 78.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$1.00
$0.21
Recent activity
- TRADESELLU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?$14.56Apr 27, 08:08 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?$183.30Apr 27, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?$196.56Apr 23, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?$1.30Apr 23, 12:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 140 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?$66.88Apr 12, 00:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 140 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?$49.44Apr 12, 00:38 UTC
- TRADESELLMistral AI IPO before 2027?$45.36Apr 11, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLMistral AI IPO before 2027?$242.76Apr 11, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?$360.45Apr 10, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYMistral AI IPO before 2027?$294.98Apr 10, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?$128.76Apr 9, 22:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?$142.10Apr 9, 22:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?$115.42Apr 9, 22:56 UTC
- TRADESELLKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?$22.75Apr 9, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?$247.80Apr 9, 21:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?$48.62Apr 7, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?$316.93Apr 7, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 140 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?$123.59Apr 7, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?$559.44Apr 7, 14:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Third term" in March?$4.00Apr 7, 03:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $169.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 13, 07:39 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 08:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.