Sharp-Destiny
0xe4e66538cdf5fd83036909bfafafea240ce522be
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$0.01
Total PnL
$-91.81
Realised
$-3.29
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?
3 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.66
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?
2 shares @ 46.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.93
- NO
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
312 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-29.94
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?
28 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.76
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - November 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
23 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2025$0.00
$-8.51
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - November 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
19 shares @ 84.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2025$0.00
$-15.96
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
17 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.89
- YES
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
15 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-4.05
- YES
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
14 shares @ 84.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-11.84
- NO
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?
11 shares @ 18.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.06
Recent activity
- REDEEMNamed storm forms before hurricane season?$1.00Jun 17, 06:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?$1.00Jun 17, 06:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill André Ventura win the first round by at least 4%?$1.00Jun 17, 06:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?$3.00Jun 17, 06:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill António José Seguro win the first round?$5.00Jun 17, 06:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?$10.00Jun 17, 06:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Josy and Gunnar marry by the end of Love is Blind: Germany: Season 2?$13.00Jun 17, 06:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?$13.00Jun 17, 06:53 UTC
- REDEEMAnother critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?$18.00Jun 17, 06:53 UTC
- REDEEMAnother critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?$29.00Jun 17, 06:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill DoorDash report 900 million or more total orders in Q4 2025?$41.00Jun 17, 06:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?$14.72Jan 16, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?$3.88Jan 16, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?$1.90Jan 16, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLUp Only podcast released by February 28, 2026?$12.60Jan 16, 00:32 UTC
- TRADESELLUp Only podcast released by February 28, 2026?$6.72Jan 16, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?$1.80Jan 16, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$2.89Jan 16, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?$4.76Jan 16, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?$8.37Jan 16, 00:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $6.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 15, 20:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 06:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.