Leading-Octopus
0xe50d812b9d259bcde8add30d8f24bccc4c660974
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$3.84
Total PnL
$-208.22
Realised
$-1.29
Win rate
0%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
3 shares @ 40.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$1.91
$0.90
- NO
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
1 shares @ 96.8¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.00
$-0.00
- NO
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.94
$-0.06
- YES
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 26?
183 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- PISTONS
Hawks vs. Pistons
119 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-70.00
- LEGACY
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- THUNDER
Thunder vs. Pistons
40 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYITF Tianjin: Geun Jun Kim vs Isaac Becroft$1.04Aug 6, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBraunschweig: Vilius Gaubas vs Facundo Acosta$3.06Jul 9, 07:03 UTC
- REDEEMITF San Gregorio: Dunja Maric vs Federica Bilardo$43.42Jul 2, 12:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in July?$1.00Jul 2, 08:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$5.98Jul 2, 08:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$2.35Jul 2, 08:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$3.58Jul 2, 08:33 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 30, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$0.99Jun 30, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.03Jun 30, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$3.80Jun 30, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?$3.75Jun 30, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?$3.85Jun 30, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$6.50Jun 30, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?$5.70Jun 30, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump meets with Putin by December 31?$6.00Jun 30, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$6.90Jun 29, 03:48 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$1.06Jun 29, 02:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$0.97Jun 29, 02:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$2.59Jun 29, 01:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $2.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 03:28 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 6, 01:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.