Fat-Hotel
0xe5e851be07381d48064dbc3f90e4075f8f8576a1
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$414.03
Total PnL
$251.77
Realised
$215.61
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
235 shares @ 63.9¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$224.61
$74.61
- NO
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
257 shares @ 31.1¢·now 59.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$152.90
$72.85
- NO
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?
250 shares @ 50.4¢·now 12.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.04
$-96.15
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
255 shares @ 7.8¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.48
$-13.52
- YES
Will Anthropic have the second-best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
81 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.63
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$41.02Jun 14, 00:25 UTC
- REDEEMAnthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?$0.00Jun 13, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMAnthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?$0.00Jun 13, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$0.00May 31, 12:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?$0.00May 22, 09:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?$0.00May 22, 09:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the second highest estimated revenue for May 4–May 10, 2026?$0.00May 22, 09:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sam Altman testify against Musk?$0.00May 22, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?$40.00May 21, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$0.00May 11, 11:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$0.00May 11, 11:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 27–May 3, 2026?$0.00May 11, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$4.15May 4, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?$5.19May 3, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?$0.15May 3, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$0.20May 3, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$5.60May 3, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$2.80May 3, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$2.70May 3, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$71.22May 3, 08:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $12.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 27, 19:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 00:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.