Infantile-Infancy
0xe63acc18279990583f1d0d7ce3596c7c267c0679
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$376.43
Total PnL
$-483.14
Realised
$15.00
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- NO
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
33 shares @ 66.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.02
$1.47
- YES
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
43 shares @ 35.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.64
$6.64
- YES
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?
25 shares @ 60.0¢·now 77.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$19.02
$4.25
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
27 shares @ 66.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$18.13
$0.14
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
21 shares @ 86.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$18.10
$0.10
- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
30 shares @ 61.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.85
$-0.15
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?
25 shares @ 59.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.54
$2.54
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
21 shares @ 86.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$17.27
$-0.73
- NO
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
48 shares @ 31.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Jan 20, 2029$16.69
$1.69
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
23 shares @ 77.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$16.12
$-1.87
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?$18.00Aug 4, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$18.00Aug 4, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$18.00Aug 4, 03:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?$25.87Aug 2, 02:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 31, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$18.60Jul 30, 10:08 UTC
- TRADESELLUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?$31.72Jul 30, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$17.70Jul 30, 01:03 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 30, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$21.00Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$7.20Jul 29, 18:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 28?$16.77Jul 29, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$18.00Jul 29, 05:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 28?$17.47Jul 29, 04:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 27?$13.62Jul 28, 05:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $11.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 11:29 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 02:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.