Sardonic-Patty
0xe7bd61ac59883bd4abda5c63865430452ecfebce
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$109.9K
Total PnL
$4.0K
Realised
$153.56
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
73333 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$73.3K
$36.67
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
18333 shares @ 81.3¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$16.4K
$1.5K
- NO
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
4444 shares @ 89.5¢·now 93.2¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$4.1K
$162.21
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
3881 shares @ 78.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.5K
$485.15
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10000 shares @ 16.1¢·now 34.9¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$3.5K
$1.9K
- NO
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
3145 shares @ 92.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$3.0K
$50.84
- MESSI
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo
2333 shares @ 95.3¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$2.3K
$67.65
- YES
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2750 shares @ 70.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.8K
$-151.25
- NO
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?
1407 shares @ 68.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$879.41
$-77.39
- YES
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2750 shares @ 20.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$728.75
$178.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$13.3KJul 4, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$8.2KJul 4, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$99.90Jul 4, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$1.3KJul 4, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$50.3KJul 4, 16:13 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$6.25Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.74Jul 4, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.76Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?$2.7KJul 2, 03:25 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.88Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.74Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$2.2KJul 1, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?$3.1KJul 1, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?$13.7KJul 1, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle over $110 on the final trading day of June 2026?$40.80Jul 1, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?$15.0KJul 1, 06:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?$4.8KJul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?$5.6KJul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.73Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.69Jul 1, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$251.5K
Trades
5
Buy share
71%
Window
May 18, 00:00 UTC → Jun 10, 23:45 UTC
- BUYAliens.gov confirmed immigration website?$15.0K@100¢May 28, 22:07 UTC
- BUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?$7.6K@100¢May 28, 21:55 UTC
- BUYWill Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?$15.2K@100¢May 22, 20:11 UTC
- BUYChirayu Rana sued?$6.0K@100¢May 20, 05:06 UTC
- BUYGemini 3.5 released by June 30?$5.4K@100¢May 19, 17:05 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
13/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
71%
Sample
medium
16 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
$47.2K · 19% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $8.1K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 27, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 16:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.