Ragged-Dose
0xe85607bf3eddcc3f7cff16671695f5e96bba3789
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
74
Open notional
$832.57
Total PnL
$74.10
Realised
$28.93
Win rate
64%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 74- NO
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2027?
213 shares @ 64.9¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$154.25
$16.15
- NO
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
62 shares @ 82.7¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$52.49
$0.79
- NO
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
47 shares @ 71.8¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.24
$11.24
- NO
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
63 shares @ 55.4¢·now 53.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.49
$-1.51
- NO
Don Lemon sentenced to prison?
35 shares @ 78.9¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$33.36
$5.36
- NO
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
42 shares @ 62.1¢·now 78.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$32.90
$6.70
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
35 shares @ 60.6¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.14
$9.14
- NO
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?
31 shares @ 86.4¢·now 93.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$29.31
$2.22
- NO
Tim Walz in jail by December 31?
29 shares @ 94.4¢·now 94.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$26.90
$-0.10
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
33 shares @ 74.8¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.24
$0.24
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.53Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$8.32Jul 27, 09:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK election be called by June 30, 2027?$10.11Jul 26, 08:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?$5.00Jul 24, 12:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$19.46Jul 22, 19:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$16.00Jul 21, 22:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.00Jul 21, 09:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ed Miliband be in the Burnham cabinet?$0.00Jul 21, 09:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.00Jul 21, 09:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.00Jul 21, 09:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.00Jul 21, 09:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $6.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 17:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.