Potable-Anniversary
0xf0575f0dda3b9405e45a93419dc8bcd3ad586ec2
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
50
Open notional
$1.9K
Total PnL
$-297.92
Realised
$11.23
Win rate
22%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
770 shares @ 61.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$489.26
$19.26
- YES
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
453 shares @ 93.2¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$447.35
$25.05
- NO
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
458 shares @ 78.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$391.96
$34.19
- YES
Will Alfredo Gaspar be the VP candidate of Flavio Bolsonaro?
218 shares @ 93.3¢·now 94.2¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$204.94
$1.95
- YES
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
144 shares @ 82.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$135.25
$17.23
- NO
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
86 shares @ 63.9¢·now 83.2¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$71.34
$16.55
- NO
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
84 shares @ 71.3¢·now 77.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$64.77
$4.77
- YES
Will Helaena Targaryen die in the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale?
52 shares @ 85.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$51.68
$7.49
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
3 shares @ 68.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$2.69
$0.71
- YES
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
16 shares @ 63.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$1.98
$-8.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Alfredo Gaspar be the VP candidate of Flavio Bolsonaro?$203.55Aug 11, 03:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?$202.21Aug 11, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Helaena Targaryen die in the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale?$22.43Aug 9, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Helaena Targaryen die in the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale?$21.76Aug 9, 15:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?$45.48Aug 9, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?$162.80Aug 9, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$10.00Aug 4, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYGianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?$60.86Aug 4, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?$10.00Jul 30, 01:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$235.70Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig?$6.78Jul 24, 15:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig?$1.21Jul 24, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$92.09Jul 22, 01:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?$92.03Jul 22, 01:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$105.89Jul 21, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?$102.85Jul 21, 19:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig?$3.00Jul 21, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$55.78Jul 20, 15:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the announcers say "Maradona" or "Pelé" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?$8.33Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the announcers say "VAR" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?$32.35Jul 19, 23:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
22% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $37.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 03:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.