0xf0e1fb642143d2feb559b8b80a853510423dbe4d
0xf0e1fb642143d2feb559b8b80a853510423dbe4d
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$14.90
Total PnL
$0.70
Realised
$30.69
Win rate
62%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.00
$1.85
- NO
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
5 shares @ 42.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.00
$2.90
- YES
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.36
$0.83
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
2 shares @ 42.5¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.03
$0.36
- YES
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
5 shares @ 47.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.93
$-1.42
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
2 shares @ 57.5¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.54
$-0.36
- YES
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?
1 shares @ 10.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.04
$-0.10
- YES
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
5 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.85
- NO
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?
7 shares @ 28.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.91
- YES
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
5 shares @ 46.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.35
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$0.12May 3, 05:23 UTC
- REDEEMTexas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles$0.24May 3, 05:22 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by May 31?$1.23May 3, 05:22 UTC
- REDEEMKigali: Stefano Napolitano vs Arthur Gea$2.00May 3, 05:22 UTC
- REDEEMJilin Northeast Tigers vs. Shenzhen Leopards$2.14May 3, 05:22 UTC
- REDEEMMorelos: Beibit Zhukayev vs Facundo Mena$2.24May 3, 05:22 UTC
- REDEEMMinnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox$3.07May 3, 05:22 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)$3.18May 3, 05:22 UTC
- REDEEMMiami Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Anastasia Zakharova$3.56May 3, 05:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?$4.87May 3, 05:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 15?$5.00May 3, 05:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-09 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?$5.00May 3, 05:22 UTC
- REDEEMMiami Open: Reilly Opelka vs Taylor Fritz$5.00May 3, 05:21 UTC
- REDEEMMiami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals$5.00May 3, 05:21 UTC
- REDEEMBaltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees$5.00May 3, 05:21 UTC
- REDEEMNew York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers$5.00May 3, 05:21 UTC
- REDEEMSplit: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$5.00May 3, 05:21 UTC
- REDEEMShanxi Loongs vs. Beijing Royal Fighters$6.77May 3, 05:21 UTC
- REDEEMOfner vs. Silva: Match O/U 21.5$9.35May 3, 05:21 UTC
- TRADESELLManresa vs. Joventut$0.51Apr 12, 10:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
62% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $2.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 11, 20:19 UTC
- Last active
- May 3, 05:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.