Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$8.63
Liquidity
$20.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-8.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $20.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5982.2h
- 17:46SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.2pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.
Biggest hourly move: -7.5pp at 3d ago (to 12¢).
Show all 32 hour-by-hour ticks
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · -6.2pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · -3.6pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · -6.3pp → 13¢
- 3d ago · -5.0pp → 12¢
- 3d ago · -5.6pp → 13¢
- 3d ago · -7.5pp → 13¢
- 3d ago · -7.2pp → 13¢
- 3d ago · -3.6pp → 13¢
- 3d ago · -7.0pp → 13¢
- 3d ago · -4.6pp → 12¢
- 3d ago · -5.2pp → 13¢
- 3d ago · -6.2pp → 13¢
- 3d ago · -3.1pp → 13¢
- 3d ago · -5.3pp → 12¢
- 3d ago · -7.5pp → 12¢
- 3d ago · -5.0pp → 12¢
- 3d ago · -6.2pp → 13¢
- 3d ago · -5.7pp → 14¢
- 3d ago · -5.8pp → 14¢
- 3d ago · -5.9pp → 14¢
- 3d ago · -5.8pp → 14¢
- 3d ago · -5.7pp → 14¢
- 4d ago · -5.6pp → 14¢
- 4d ago · -5.8pp → 14¢
- 4d ago · -5.6pp → 14¢
- 4d ago · -5.6pp → 14¢
- 4d ago · -6.0pp → 14¢
- 4d ago · -5.6pp → 14¢
- 4d ago · -5.8pp → 14¢
- 4d ago · -6.1pp → 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.