Splendid-Progression
0xf13f337615e4766b8305301e15908ebcacf531cb
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
66
Open notional
$250.96
Total PnL
$-33.33
Realised
$16.28
Win rate
64%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 66- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?
33 shares @ 48.2¢·now 75.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$25.03
$9.04
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
33 shares @ 13.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$23.25
$18.90
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
59 shares @ 34.4¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$16.77
$-3.50
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
22 shares @ 68.3¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.15
$0.26
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
29 shares @ 32.9¢·now 44.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.72
$3.32
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?
13 shares @ 35.3¢·now 92.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$12.02
$7.41
- NO
Discord IPO before 2027?
18 shares @ 41.3¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.41
$4.10
- YES
Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?
125 shares @ 8.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.38
$-0.63
- NO
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
13 shares @ 62.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.29
$1.29
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
95 shares @ 12.6¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.01
$-2.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$3.00Jul 29, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$1.85Jul 28, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?$2.07Jul 28, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?$8.00Jul 28, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$6.00Jul 27, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?$8.18Jul 27, 16:20 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?$5.22Jul 27, 11:12 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$4.04Jul 27, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$8.00Jul 27, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$8.00Jul 27, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?$7.54Jul 27, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 27?$2.00Jul 27, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2.5T yuan?$5.30Jul 27, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2.5T yuan?$2.70Jul 27, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$8.26Jul 27, 01:12 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?$7.87Jul 26, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$4.00Jul 26, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?$8.27Jul 26, 16:11 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?$1.89Jul 26, 16:11 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?$7.92Jul 26, 16:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 01:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 01:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.