Fumbling-Pot
0xf3fa11abc1ceb75fc2b29535268775ae2d8cd2e7
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-797.96
Realised
$-1.82
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- MOUZ
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)
117 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UNDER
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5
115 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-7.60
- YES
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- WALDO CORTES-ACOSTA
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)
104 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.86
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMilan: Pierluigi Basile vs Marco Cecchinato$26.51Jul 3, 07:04 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump's face on US gold coin by July 4?$0.02Jul 3, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$0.14Jul 3, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.24Jul 3, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.64Jul 3, 07:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$4.54Jul 3, 07:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?$5.34Jul 3, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMParma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5$0.45Jul 3, 05:53 UTC
- REDEEMHellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5$0.48Jul 3, 05:53 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$0.24Jul 3, 05:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$0.50Jul 3, 05:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$0.76Jul 3, 05:10 UTC
- TRADESELLMetamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?$0.91Jul 3, 05:10 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?$3.47Jul 1, 19:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?$9.74Jul 1, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? $1.12Jul 1, 06:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.13Jul 1, 03:43 UTC
- TRADESELLMetamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?$0.10Jul 1, 03:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$2.09Jul 1, 03:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?$5.56Jul 1, 03:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $3.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 03:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 07:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.