Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Probability
43¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
+8.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+15.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 8pp over 24h
Now 43¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 23.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5927.2h
- 05:45SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+8.0pp over the last 24h, now 43¢.
Biggest hourly move: +28.0pp at 13:00 (to 63¢).
Show top 8 of 23 hourly moves
- 05:00 · +8.0pp → 43¢
- 03:00 · +9.0pp → 44¢
- 02:00 · +9.0pp → 44¢
- 00:00 · +9.0pp → 44¢
- 22:00 · +13.5pp → 48¢
- 17:00 · +8.5pp → 44¢
- 15:00 · +8.0pp → 43¢
- 13:00 · +28.0pp → 63¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (23.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.