Gripping-Banquette
0xf4165309a3b551ebb1a12edb0a0510bf62be6ec9
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$736.05
Total PnL
$-199.83
Realised
$35.05
Win rate
59%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- NO
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
490 shares @ 92.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$472.61
$21.80
- NO
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $26B?
98 shares @ 74.5¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$91.26
$18.15
- YES
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
120 shares @ 86.5¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$30.49
$-72.94
- NO
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?
38 shares @ 71.7¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$30.15
$2.95
- YES
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?
187 shares @ 48.5¢·now 11.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$20.57
$-70.13
- NO
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
22 shares @ 70.0¢·now 89.8¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$19.37
$4.27
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
15 shares @ 74.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.74
$-0.70
- YES
ECB rate cut in 2026?
69 shares @ 56.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.64
$-30.05
- NO
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?
14 shares @ 23.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$7.54
$4.33
- NO
Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
5 shares @ 55.0¢·now 97.8¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$4.61
$2.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?$453.32May 25, 10:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?$0.91May 25, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league?$1.27May 25, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?$1.52May 25, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?$2.09May 25, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division?$2.25May 25, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?$2.71May 25, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Stephen Heidt win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?$3.57May 25, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?$3.57May 25, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMUSD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?$5.00May 25, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs$11.00May 25, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?$422.42May 25, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?$412.27Apr 3, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs$6.38Apr 3, 12:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?$0.00Apr 3, 12:38 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition$0.00Apr 3, 12:38 UTC
- REDEEMProph3T mindshare all time high by March 31?$0.00Apr 3, 12:38 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?$0.00Apr 3, 12:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jennifer Lawrence be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Apr 3, 12:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Myles Garrett break the NFL sack record?$0.03Apr 3, 12:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $290.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 3, 12:38 UTC
- Last active
- May 25, 10:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.