Graceful-Picturesque
0xf431863548b76390f733081331e0857c9797886d
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
37
Open notional
$5.25
Total PnL
$-33.91
Realised
$0.37
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- YES
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
1 shares @ 81.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$1.08
$0.08
- YES
US x China Military clash before 2027?
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.07
$0.07
- YES
New pandemic in 2026?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.81
$-0.19
- YES
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Oct 24, 2027$0.78
$-0.22
- YES
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
12 shares @ 8.6¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.45
$-0.55
- YES
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?
20 shares @ 5.1¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.40
$-0.60
- YES
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 3.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.16
$-0.84
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$1.01Jun 3, 09:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$1.01Jun 2, 12:52 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$1.01Jun 1, 06:09 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?$1.05Jun 1, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?$1.03May 30, 18:58 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$1.17May 30, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$1.00May 30, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?$1.03May 30, 17:55 UTC
- TRADESELLParis Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score$1.59May 30, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?$1.02May 30, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYParis Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score$1.01May 30, 16:46 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$1.11May 29, 06:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?$1.30May 29, 04:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?$1.00May 23, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$1.00May 23, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?$1.06May 23, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?$1.03May 22, 11:54 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026?$1.01May 22, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?$1.03May 22, 10:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?$1.92May 22, 10:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 12, 07:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 3, 09:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.