Focused-Artificer
0xf4544ad911122d6abcafede027c01671e3d77ecc
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$342.46
Total PnL
$-276.33
Realised
$56.25
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- YES
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
500 shares @ 9.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.50
$-12.50
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
460 shares @ 15.2¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.20
$-37.80
- NO
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
419 shares @ 6.9¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.39
$2.69
- YES
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
220 shares @ 5.7¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$27.50
$15.00
- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
125 shares @ 25.9¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.88
$-5.52
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
90 shares @ 30.9¢·now 21.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.39
$-8.40
- YES
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
600 shares @ 14.5¢·now 3.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.90
$-68.10
- YES
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
219 shares @ 12.2¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.60
$-8.00
- YES
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
200 shares @ 12.6¢·now 9.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$18.01
$-7.15
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
240 shares @ 10.6¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.00
$-7.40
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$1.20Jul 28, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 28, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 28, 13:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$1.50Jul 27, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?$1.80Jul 27, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$2.70Jul 27, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?$1.80Jul 27, 03:52 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?$1.20Jul 25, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?$0.50Jul 25, 00:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$1.10Jul 24, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?$1.00Jul 24, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$1.70Jul 24, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$2.00Jul 24, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$2.00Jul 24, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$1.50Jul 24, 06:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $2.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.