Friendly-Paragraph
0xf6c46a6426cd7d9dde0d5c46e65dd435af4fe384
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
192
Open notional
$25.02
Total PnL
$-223.01
Realised
$-0.19
Win rate
7%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 192- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
3 shares @ 31.1¢·now 73.3¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$2.28
$1.31
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
3 shares @ 78.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.19
$0.19
- YES
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
4 shares @ 53.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.08
$-0.15
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
3 shares @ 61.5¢·now 58.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
2 shares @ 50.5¢·now 82.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.63
$0.63
- NO
Mark Ruffalo as Hulk?
2 shares @ 47.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 18, 2026$1.53
$0.43
- NO
Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine?
2 shares @ 58.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 18, 2026$1.32
$0.32
- NO
Jonathan Majors as Kang?
1 shares @ 83.9¢·now 93.3¢·exp Dec 18, 2026$1.25
$0.13
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.21
$0.21
- YES
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
1 shares @ 74.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$1.13
$0.13
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?$1.30Jul 3, 08:35 UTC
- REDEEMAWS service disrupted by June 30?$2.17Jul 2, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$1.23Jul 1, 12:24 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?$1.11Jul 1, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$1.28Jun 18, 00:37 UTC
- REDEEMAnother critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?$3.51Jun 9, 01:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$10.00Jun 8, 05:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 60% and 70%?$1.00Jun 5, 18:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?$2.17Jun 5, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May?$1.09Jun 4, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May?$1.09Jun 4, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May?$1.20Jun 4, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?$1.55May 30, 22:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?$3.23May 30, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage$1.02May 26, 19:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$1.06May 20, 14:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?$5.13May 20, 14:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$7.16May 20, 03:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17?$3.57May 18, 02:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17?$1.37May 18, 01:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
13 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 13
- Avg trade size
- $1.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 15:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 08:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.