0xf72a52758e00ce4750142c70ca6f319c9f31ef71
0xf72a52758e00ce4750142c70ca6f319c9f31ef71
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$64.12
Total PnL
$11.57
Realised
$6.15
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
15 shares @ 46.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$15.00
$8.10
- YES
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?
10 shares @ 76.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$10.00
$2.33
- YES
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?
10 shares @ 46.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$10.00
$5.33
- YES
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?
9 shares @ 52.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$9.12
$4.33
- NO
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
5 shares @ 62.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$5.00
$1.90
- NO
Will Wrexham be promoted to the EPL?
5 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$5.00
$0.65
- NO
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
5 shares @ 86.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.00
$0.69
- NO
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$4.69
$1.83
- YES
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.31
$-0.69
- YES
Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2026 Masters tournament?
68 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$3.10Apr 22, 12:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$3.88Apr 22, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wrexham be promoted to the EPL?$4.35Apr 22, 02:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?$3.65Apr 22, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$3.73Apr 21, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$3.60Apr 20, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$3.70Apr 20, 21:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$3.40Apr 20, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$3.35Apr 20, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$3.81Apr 20, 02:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?$3.17Apr 19, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?$3.30Apr 19, 22:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$2.10Apr 19, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$2.15Apr 19, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$2.15Apr 19, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$2.30Apr 19, 17:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$4.30Apr 19, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$2.45Apr 19, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$2.45Apr 19, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$2.65Apr 19, 17:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 15, 10:54 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 22, 12:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.