Male-Message
0xfbd2a02c1fb3ea1bc0ac1c1376ff82ed1a8361f1
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$148.84
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$-1.28
Win rate
43%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
26 shares @ 53.1¢·now 44.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$11.73
$-2.26
- NO
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
14 shares @ 52.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.51
$4.07
- BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
27 shares @ 47.3¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$11.46
$-1.28
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
13 shares @ 76.1¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.87
$-0.34
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
71 shares @ 6.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.63
$5.35
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
9 shares @ 88.6¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.89
$0.25
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
7 shares @ 94.6¢·now 95.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.92
$0.04
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
7 shares @ 84.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.84
$0.82
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
9 shares @ 59.5¢·now 62.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$5.54
$0.23
- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 73.5¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$5.33
$-0.75
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$7.26Jul 22, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?$1.22Jul 22, 09:22 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?$3.09Jul 22, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$4.60Jul 22, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$1.16Jul 22, 06:54 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$2.31Jul 21, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBaltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox$3.52Jul 21, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBaltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox$9.56Jul 21, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.11Jul 21, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$1.53Jul 21, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$1.26Jul 21, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$4.82Jul 21, 06:11 UTC
- REDEEMPittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees$3.00Jul 21, 02:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYPittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees$2.63Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYPittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees$5.17Jul 21, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?$1.79Jul 20, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$3.04Jul 20, 17:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.19Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
60/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $4.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 22:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 09:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.