Brief-Burst
0xfe4af4dc2b1d52274df70720c1ef1ebe6ff9e5a9
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$32.75
Total PnL
$-428.42
Realised
$1.82
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1500.00 and 1549.99 at the end of December 2026?
11 shares @ 9.5¢·now 20.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.13
$1.13
- NO
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?
2 shares @ 46.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2027$1.87
$0.87
- YES
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 700B and 800B?
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$1.71
$0.71
- YES
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
3 shares @ 32.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.63
$0.63
- YES
Will world GDP growth be 3.0% in 2026?
5 shares @ 5.5¢·now 28.9¢·exp Jan 15, 2027$1.44
$1.16
- YES
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$1.41
$0.41
- NO
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1600.00 or higher at the end of December 2026?
3 shares @ 39.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.12
$0.12
- YES
Will South African inflation be between 4.1% and 4.4% in 2026?
3 shares @ 32.0¢·now 31.1¢·exp Jan 20, 2027$0.97
$-0.03
- YES
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1550.00 and 1599.99 at the end of December 2026?
8 shares @ 9.6¢·now 12.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.96
$0.23
- YES
Will the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.88
$-0.12
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?$1.02Jul 2, 05:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?$1.11Jul 2, 05:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?$1.34Jul 2, 05:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?$1.75Jul 2, 05:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?$3.34Jul 2, 05:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?$2.33Jul 2, 05:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$11.20Jul 2, 05:16 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?$5.88Jun 1, 14:15 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$14.29Jun 1, 14:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April meeting?$5.56May 7, 14:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$1.05Apr 21, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$0.58Mar 26, 04:54 UTC
- TRADESELLSam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?$1.20Mar 26, 04:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?$1.53Mar 26, 04:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?$2.58Mar 26, 04:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$1.03Mar 24, 09:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$1.05Mar 24, 09:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$1.00Mar 23, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$1.00Mar 23, 06:54 UTC
- TRADESELLUS recession by end of 2026?$1.17Mar 23, 01:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $2.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 10, 10:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 05:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.