UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
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Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue Open Detail and read the resolution source before acting
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
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UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
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Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
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MARKET PULSE
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?MIXED EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
29% 3.4pp
24h volume
$426.3K
Orrery Pulse0% current0-57% 7D range-18.9pp net move
77%58%39%19%0%
0%
May 260%-18.9pp from start
May 25May 25May 26May 26May 26May 26May 26May 26
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
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Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 66/91 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 75 | 62/87 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 74 | 61/86 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 74 | 54/97 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 72 | 60/80 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 26, 2026
Read full brief - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? probability down 10.0pp on $0.5M of 24h volume.
- Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? shows a momentum pattern at 66% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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