Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
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Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue Verify source and settlement before reading price moves as info
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
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Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 90/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 81/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 65/91 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 79 | 71/82 92/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 74 | 54/97 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 26, 2026
Read full brief - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? probability down 10.0pp on $0.5M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? shows a momentum pattern at 90% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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