MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Resolves in 30h — verify the source
Verify
2US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
3Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Resolves in 6h — verify the source
Verify
4Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Resolves in 30h — verify the source
Verify
5Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Resolves in 30h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo ArnaldiHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
44% 9.0pp
24h volume
$2.8M
Orrery Pulse46% current30-47% 7D range+14.5pp net move
50%44%39%33%27%
46%
Jun 146%+14.5pp from start
May 25May 26May 27May 28May 29May 30May 31Jun 1
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo ArnaldiTop read
24h Δ -9.0pp, 1h Δ -5.0pp · Turnover 39.1× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1?UMA PENDING
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 91/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 82/88 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 80 | 73/90 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 79 | 82/90 60/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 77 | 64/95 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 1, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? probability down 16.5pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi shows a momentum pattern at 91% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? resolves in 6h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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